In line with the WMO Guidelines on Multi-hazard Impact-based Forecast and Warning Services, many National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHS) agencies have begun exploring impact-based forecasting and warnings as a means to communicate risks and impacts to the public and sector end-users. Impact-based forecasting is a structured approach for combining hazard, exposure, and vulnerability data to identify risk and support decision-making, with the ultimate objective of encouraging early action that reduces damages and loss of life from natural hazards.
Traditionally, governments have employed hazard-focused warnings to communicate impending extreme weather conditions. However, while providing scientifically accurate information is important, it is critical to communicate what people need to know to effectively respond to hazard risks. This indicates a need to communicate specific and relevant potential consequences with respect to local contexts, not just for public end-users, but as well for different sectors and agencies. The development of this communication entails synthesizing weather information with quasi-static information on exposure and vulnerability profiles to identify the range of risks in an area. The identification of different levels of risks and impacts enables the issuance of different warnings to encourage adequate responses by relevant users to reduce damage and losses.
||Operationalizing Impact-Based Forecasting and Warning Services
This manual was developed under the project “Operationalizing Impact-based Forecasting and Warning Services (IBFWS)”, to support the capacity of the Viet Nam Meteorological and Hydrological Administration (VNMHA) to provide impact-based forecasting and early warning services. The objective is to introduce impact-based forecasting and the substantive steps for producing an impact-based forecast, with a focus on the local context of Viet Nam. This will be covered over 3 modules in the training manual.
- Module 1 discusses what impact-based forecasting is, why it is used, and provides examples of successful implementation and use of impact-based forecasting by governments across the world.
- Module 2 introduces the steps required for producing an impact-based forecast for typhoons.
- Module 3 guides steps to develop impact outlooks based on anomalies in seasonal forecasts (e.g., lower-than-usual rainfall) which may contribute to the exacerbation of slow-onset disasters such as droughts.
This manual is prepared based on data collected from various sources for demonstration purposes. An explanation of the various data types, the data sets used, and potential other data sets that can be used are available in Annexes I and II of this manual. This manual is intended to demonstrate the concepts of impact-based forecasting using example data. However, higher resolution data and additional indicators can be used as appropriate.
By completing the training contained in this manual, users are expected to understand the following:
- Benefits of impact-based forecasting
- A methodological framework of impact-based forecasting
- How to produce and interpret impact-based forecasting using GIS software
- Information and data required, and their potential sources
The software used to produce the examples in Modules 2 and 3 is QGIS. However, as the objective of this manual is to guide the substantive steps required to produce an impact-based forecast, it is expected that the user can adapt the steps in this manual in accordance with other GIS software such that the same impact-based forecasting steps and outcomes can be achieved.